How have Donald Trump’s tariffs affected U.S. e-commerce? According to Statista’s dossier, “Import tariffs impact on U.S. e-commerce,” if the high-tariff scenario projected for 2025 continues, the sector could lose up to 320 billion dollars in value by 2029.

The document not only projects figures of economic impact, but also breaks down how the trade policies promoted by Donald Trump would affect businesses, consumers, and global supply chains, with strategic implications for brands, marketplaces, and logistics operators.

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How much will the e-commerce market shrink under a high-tariff scenario?

Statista estimates that U.S. e-commerce sales would reach 1.84 trillion dollars in 2029. However, with high tariffs and no change in trade policy, the figure would fall to 1.52 trillion, representing a 17% contraction.

This setback is not minor considering that e-commerce has been one of the key growth engines for the U.S. economy over the past decade, driven by digitalization and the boom in mobile shopping.

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Donald Trump’s tariff plan contemplates a substantial increase in import tariffs, in some cases tripling current average rates. This would raise the average tariff rate to its highest level since 1969.

Although some trade partners have negotiated adjustments — for example, China, which would move from a tariff of 145% to 55% on certain goods — the overall policy would significantly increase the cost of products from Asia, Europe, and Latin America, directly impacting categories most dependent on imports.

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Which e-commerce categories will be most affected?

The dossier identifies fashion and home goods as carrying the greatest tariff risk:

• Fashion: the average tariff would rise to 12.55%, compared to the 1.83% paid by other imports. This will affect clothing, footwear, and accessories, reducing their price competitiveness.
• Home and disposables: pots, pans, cutlery, disposable cups, hangers, lamps, LED bulbs, toys, and small appliances would see a major price increase due to high dependence on Asian suppliers.

How will companies react to the effects of tariffs?

The Statista report presents surveys from different e-commerce players:

• Amazon sellers:
  • 76% foresee an increase in the cost of goods.
  • 63% plan to raise consumer prices.
  • 54% believe Amazon’s margins will fall.
  • 44% consider shifting production outside China.
• D2C brands in North America:
  • 71% will raise prices.
  • 49% expect a “significant” increase in landed cost.
  • 45% will seek new suppliers.
  • 34% will cut costs or staff.

Which international markets are priorities for expansion?

Under internal pressure, many e-commerce companies are looking to expand sales outside the U.S. The main destinations highlighted in the study are:

1. Canada (71%)
2. United Kingdom (52%)
3. European Union (48%)
4. Asia-Pacific (46%, excluding Australia and New Zealand)
5. Mexico (43%)

Geographic proximity and trade agreements make Canada and Mexico strategic destinations for nearshoring and distribution.

What operational challenges does high-tariff e-commerce impose?

Statista identifies five major “pain points” for companies operating in this new environment:

1. Inventory management (47%) – deciding between stockpiling goods before price hikes or reducing stock to minimize taxes.
2. Customs processes (45%) – slower, costlier, and at higher risk of delays.
3. Compliance (45%) – stricter regulatory compliance, with reinforced certifications and traceability.
4. Dependence on logistics operators (3PL) (42%) – need for new partners in alternative markets.
5. Changing tariff policies (38%) – uncertainty that hinders planning.

How do tariffs affect cross-border commerce and marketplaces like Temu and SHEIN?

Cross-border commerce faces an additional risk: modification of the “de minimis” rule, which allows packages up to $800 to enter duty-free.

In 2023, 30% of daily shipments from Temu and SHEIN to the U.S. benefited from this exemption. If the rule changes, the final cost to consumers would increase, weakening the price advantage of these platforms.

The study also notes a sharp drop in active users:

• Temu fell from 33.9 million MAU in May 2024 to 7.9 million in May 2025.
• SHEIN dropped to 7.1 million in the same period.

How does consumer behavior change with high tariffs?

Between March and May 2025, Statista detected significant changes:

• Increase in “Made in USA” purchases to avoid extra costs.
• Greater price sensitivity: 44% accept a maximum of +5% and 32% tolerate no increase.
• Stockpiling purchases:
  • 27% make purchases in advance to avoid hikes.
  • 34% stockpile groceries.
  • 20% stockpile household products.
• Promotional events like Prime Day are increasingly used to stockpile (32%) or demand bigger discounts (36%).

A more expensive, competitive, and regulated e-commerce

The effects of tariffs proposed by Donald Trump go beyond raising product prices; they affect the entire value chain of e-commerce: from sourcing and production to final delivery and consumer behavior.

For brands, the key will be to anticipate, diversify risks, and get creative with the value proposition. For consumers, the reality will be a more expensive market, with fewer international options and a greater inclination toward domestic products.

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